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Week 5 Picks

Sep 25

6 min read

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Last week was TERRIBLE! Even Dyllon did better than us. Ant and Pough both went 2-3 improving our records to 15-6 and 12-8 respectively. Let's get to this week's picks.


19 Illinois vs. 9 Penn State

Illinois will be tested once again coming off a gutsy win on the road vs Nebraska. The defense for Illinois has been a strong suit, ranking 32nd in total defense and tied for 5th in the country in turnovers forced. The Illini will need another stellar performance from QB Luke Altmeyer, who’s thrown for 862 yards and 10 tds so far this season. The Illini will face their toughest test of the season, as the Nittany Lions rank 9th in total defense and 7th in total offense. This game should be physical, typical Big 10 type of game featuring two good defenses. Ultimately, the home field advantage is going to be a difference. Penn State 30 - Illinois 20, Ant


Illinois has been extremely impressive this season and they will have to bring their best game to date into Beaver Stadium. Former Ole Miss QB and Matt Corrall backup Luke Altmyer has been on fire. He's 75/105 (71.4%) with 10 tuddies and ZERO INTs! That's impressive especially seeing that the Illini have faced two Top 25 teams already in this young season. Penn State comes into this game with a strong desire to run in every game. Yardage wise, they ae pretty balanced, BUT ground and pound is an understatement. Illinois has a chance to prove they belong in the conversation as a top Big 10 team. But winning on the road in back-to-back weeks is hard to do and winning in Happy Valley is even harder. I've picked against Illinois twice already and lost...won't get me again. Illinois 24 - Penn State 21, Pough


20 Oklahoma State vs. 23 Kansas State

Possibly an early must win game for both teams, if they want to stay alive in the conference race. Oklahoma State is coming off a loss to Utah while Kansas State was on the wrong side of a blowout loss to BYU. Kansas State’s offense will look to get back on track vs the 125th ranked defense in the nation. QB Avery Johnson’s dual threat ability could hurt the Cowboys, as we’ve seen earlier this season vs Arkansas. Oklahoma State has yet to get Ollie Gordon going this season, as the preseason Heisman hopeful only has 258 yards on the season. He faces a tough rushing defense in Kansas State who only allows 83 yards per game on the ground. The Cowboys will need another big game from QB Alan Bowman if they want to pull off the road victory. Kansas State 28 - Oklahoma State 27, Ant


Both teams come into this matchup licking their wounds. Although the Cowboys made it look respectable at the end, both teams were dominated. How Kansas State has managed to make it to their 3-1 record is baffling to me. I think they are a good team, but nothing to write home about. Oklahoma State is a team that should be on that next tier, but they can never stay out of their own way. Whether it is off the field issues or on the field execution, Ok State has to get it together. I honestly don't like either team, but I trust Oklahoma State more talent-wise. Oklahoma State 27 - Kansas State 20, Pough


15 Louisville vs. 16 Notre Dame

Louisville hits the road for the first time this season, heading to South Bend to face the Irish, who are looking for revenge for last year’s loss to Louisville. Louisville is currently 22nd in total defense and 14th in total offense. The Cardinals are averaging 47.3 points per game, although they’ve only played one P4 program. Notre Dame is on a 2 game winning streak after losing to Northern Illinois in week 2. The Irish are scoring 32.8 points per game and only giving up 9.75 points a game. This will be the Cardinals toughest test of the season in their first road game. Notre Dame 24 - Louisville 20, Ant


Louisville hasn't been challenged much this year taking on FCS Austin Peay and year 2 G5 Jacksonville State. They did beat Georgia Tech, but even that game was at home. Notre Dame, well...you know. They have been focused and dominant since getting embarrased by NIU in Week 2. The defenses in this game will be key. Notre Dame have given up a 9.3 ppg while Louisville has only given up 11 ppg. The biggest difference is that Notre Dame has played more teams with a pulse. I am not sure Louisville has enough weaponry on offense. Notre Dame 21 - Louisville 10, Pough


Arkansas vs. 24 Texas A&M

Coming off an ugly win vs Auburn, Arkansas heads to Dallas to take on Texas A&M. The Razorbacks have had an explosive offense under Bobby Petrino, ranking 8th in the country in total offense with 524 yards a game. They’ll face a stout Texas A&M defense, that gives up less than 20 points a game. Arkansas defense is pretty solid in their own right, ranking in the top 15 in rushing defense and the top 50 in m scoring defense. The Aggies have had questions at QB, the health of Conner Weigman being the main one. He’s a game time decision in this one, and that’s just too much uncertainty for me. Arkansas 27 - Texas A&M 23, Ant


This series is about as lopsided as a see-saw with two fat kids on one side. Texas A&M has won 11 of the last 12. Since they renewed the rivalry in 2009, Arkansas has only won four times. That's the history, let's look at this year. Arkansas looks renewed with Bobby P calling plays again. They are averaging 40.5 ppg while only giving up 18 ppg. On the flip side, Texas A&M has been rolling since losing their opener to Notre Dame. Marcel Reed has come in and given Texas A&M a dual-threat they haven't seen since Johnny Football. Reed is still a true freshamn and hasn't fully grasped the playbook. Look for Arkansas DC Travis Williams to dial up the pressure. Arkansas 27 - Texas A&M 21, Pough


2 Georgia vs. 4 Alabama

The rematch of last year’s SEC championship game should live up to the hype. Georgia has been dominant for most of the season, other than struggling with Kentucky in their first SEC game. Alabama has seemed to not skip a beat in the transition from Nick Saban to Kalen Deboer. Deboer’s fingerprints have been on this team early as they rank 24th in total offense, 19th in rushing offense and 6th in scoring offense. The defense has been solid ranking 13th in total defense and 6th in scoring defense. The one weakness of the defense has been the run defense, ranking 68th in the nation giving up 132 yards per game. Georgia on the other hand hasn’t been as impressive offensively, ranking outside the top 50 in scoring offense (58th), total offense (65th), and rushing offense (84th). The passing game has been the strong suit, ranking 48th in the country. They’ve done a good job taking care of the ball as they’ve yet to turn the ball over this season. The Bulldog defense has been great if not elite, ranking 4th in total defense and 3rd in scoring defense. Ultimately, this is a very close game, that could come down to who makes the mistake first. Alabama 31 - Georgia 28, Ant


Many have been waiting on this game. Milroe vs Beck. DaBoer vs Smart. This could easily be the first of 3 meetings this season OR this could be an early season playoff elimination. I lean more towards the former. ESPN's matchup predictor has Bama a 66% favorite. I think this is an overreaction to the Georgia-Kentucky game. You cannot look at either team and say, "___________ has a clear advantage here or there". Defensively, Georgia has been stout against the pass. Luckily for Bama, they lean more towards the run. Bama comes into the game as the #13 total defense. Georgia is #4. We are not use to seeing Georgia play a "challenging" schedule. I think they survive this one, but barely. Georgia 21 - Alabama 20, Pough




Last but not least, Dyll's picks.



Sep 25

6 min read

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