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Week 4 Pick

Sep 18

5 min read

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We are already at Week 4 of the CFB season. So far Ant is running away with things after going 5-1 last week, he is now 13-3 on the season. Poughbear wasn't far behind going 4-2. His record now stands at 10-6. Let's get to this week's picks. 24 Illinois vs 22 Nebraska

Nebraska comes into this game a 7.5 point favorite. These two teams are similar in their run to pass ratio (53:47 - Nebraska vs 56:44 - Illinois). The quarteback number look fairly similar as well. Defenses have also been stifling. Raiola in his first conference game at home will be fun to watch on a Friday night. This all comes down to TOP and home field for me. I look for this to be a close low-scoring affair. Nebraska 17 - Illinois 13, Pough


The week gets off to a good start with a game that features 2 surprise Top 25 teams. Brett Bielema has Illinois undefeated with an impressive win over Kansas in week 2. With a heavy balance of the run game and a defense that’s only given up 2 touchdowns this season, Illinois will try to make this a slugfest. Nebraska is outscoring their opponents 102-20 so far in this season, and their run defense has led the way. Freshman QB Dylan Raiola has lived up to the hype early on, completing 72% of his passes through 3 games. But he will need to have a stellar performance against a stingy Illinois pass defense for the Huskers to pull off the victory. Nebraska 23 - Illinois 17, Ant


11 USC vs 18 Michigan

USC comes to Ann Arbor looking to make a statement win in their Big 10 debut. Michigan is looking to avoid a second loss and playoff elimination in September. I won't be long. Michigan is outmatched. USC has more yards offensively in two games than Michigan does in three games against opponents that include Fresno State and Arkansas State. Speaking of Arkansas State, Michigan threw 3 INTs and looked very pedestrian in a 10-point win. USC is coming off two impressive wins and a BYE. The 6.5 spread is not enough. USC 35 - Michigan 17, Pough


Traditional powers will meet as members of the big 10 for the first time. USC looked impressive in their week 1 win vs LSU. Miller Moss was solid for the Trojans, and will have to maintain his level of play in his first true road start vs Michigan. The USC defense seems to be improved through 2 games, and will have to continue to be stout against the run in this one. Michigan struggled badly against Texas, and failed to cover against Fresno State and Arkansas State. The defense isn’t playing at the same level as it has in past years, and the offense has struggled, leading to a change at QB. If Michigan struggles to run the football, it could be another long day in Ann Arbor. USC 27 - Michigan 20, Ant


12 Utah vs 14 Oklahoma State

The Cowboys welcome the Utes to Stillwater and the Big 12. When I initially saw this game, I jumped on Utah. The more I sat and thought on it, I leaned more to Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State turned a corner in that comeback against Arkansas. The QB1s in this game are both close to drawing social security. I think Utah's defense slows down the offensive firepower of OK-State, BUT only slows them down. OK-State 28 - Utah 24, Pough


In a Big 12 that appears wide open, 2 of the favorites to win the conference, square off in week 4. Utah should get 7th year senior QB Cam Rising back from injury after missing a game, which should be a big lift for the offense. They’ll need him to be at his best to keep up with the Oklahoma State offense, averaging 42 points a game. The Cowboys will look to get Heisman hopeful Ollie Gordon going in this one. He’s been bottled the last few weeks, rushing for less than 100 yards in the last 2 games combined. The Utah defense has allowed over 100 yards rushing in each of their last 2 games. Oklahoma State hasn’t allowed a sack all season and has one of the top passing offenses in the country, going against one of the worst pass defenses in the nation. Oklahoma State 34 - Utah 31, Ant


6 Tennessee vs 14 Oklahoma

Oklahoma opens their SEC journey with Tennessee led by former Sooner player and OC Josh Heupel. It's no secret that Heupel's departure from Oklahoma was less than ideal. He may not say it, but I will. This is personal! Oklahoma has been uninspiring the last two weeks against Houston and Tulane. I look for the Sooners to play up for this game, but I am not sure they are ready for the barrage of weapons that Heupel is bringing to Norman. Jackson Arnold, welcome to the SEC....Tennessee 34 - Oklahoma 21, Pough


For the first time since he was fired as the Offensive Coordinator, National Champion QB for the Sooners comes back to Norman as the head coach of the Volunteers. Josh Huepel’s offense behind young QB Nico Iamaleava, is again one of the best in the country, leading the nation in scoring at 64 points per game. This year’s team, also has a defense to complement that offense. The Volunteer defense is giving up 160 yards per game and feature one of the best defensive lines in the country. The Oklahoma offensive line has struggled early in the season, giving up 3 sacks in each of their first 3 games. Although QB Jackson Arnold has struggled early on, throwing for 160 yards a game, he’s been their leading rusher through 3 games. Oklahoma’s defense, led by Danny Stutsman at LB is capable of keeping the Sooners in the game, can their offense do their part and put points on the board? Tennessee 41 - Oklahoma 27, Ant


UCLA vs 16 LSU

The Sissy Blue Shirt revenge game is finally here. UCLA comes into this game with a new head coach, new OC, and a new DC. UCLA is averaging 14.5 ppg. The leading rusher is the QB. Their best weapons on offense, are the punter and the kicker. Eric Bienemy is the OC, but I don't see the personnel on the roster to make any DC worry. LSU shouldn't look down on the Bruins too much. Slow starts in all three of the games this season can create unnecessary drama. This game is an excellent opportunity for LSU to fine tune their scripted plays and redzone playcalling. Defense should have the upper hand again this week. LSU 38 - UCLA 14, Pough


First year head coach DeShaun Foster’s tenure hasn’t gotten off to the best start. The Bruins struggled vs Hawaii and got dismantled by Indiana last week. An anemic rushing attack has plaqued UCLA early on, averaging 83 yards per game on the ground. QB Ethan Garbers is completing 54% of his passes with 1 td and 3 int on the season. The UCLA defense has been stingy against the run, giving up less than 90 yards a game. Their pass defense gave up 300+ yards and 4 TDs with a 75% completion percentage against Indiana. LSU’s offense has been inconsistent, but they should be able to exploit the UCLA secondary leading to another big day for Garrett Nussmeier and the receiving corps. The offensive line will have to bring their A game against a Bruin front who have 5 sacks so far through 2 games. The Tiger defense should have a nice bounce back game against the struggling UCLA offense. This should be a get right game for the Tigers, who have plenty of things to improve on, including limiting penalties, improving the turnover margin, and establishing a solid ground game. LSU 34 - UCLA 13, Ant



We also had to include Dyll's pick this week!



Sep 18

5 min read

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